Tony Romo can be one of best
Here's why Cowboys QB could wind up among top five at position in fantasy
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Prior to the 2012 season, there was a strong case to be made that Tony Romo was a top-five-caliber quarterback. That ranking was for his status among NFL starters from an on-field perspective, but it also could have been applied to his fantasy football potential.
Romo did come close to hitting the top five of fantasy quarterbacks last season in one sense, as his 271 points ranked eighth at that position. But, in truth, he was actually well short of the goal since the No. 5 player (Peyton Manning) scored 33 more fantasy points than Romo.
If he wasn't able to reach a top-five fantasy quarterback ranking in a campaign during which he got a phenomenal late-season performance from Dez Bryant and dramatically increased his pass-attempt volume (522 in 2011 to 648 in 2012), is there any chance Romo can be a top-five fantasy passer in 2013?
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The surprising answer to that question is yes, at least as long as the Cowboys do five things to better maximize their fantasy football potential.
Those things are:
Continue to send Dez Bryant after favorable matchups
Bryant was highly productive across the yards-per-attempt spectrum but, as will be noted in my draft guide, some of his most explosive gains occurred when facing a green-rated cornerback (those whose coverage metrics placed them in the bottom third of the league).
Aerials in that category accounted for 43.1 percent of Bryant's total targets (easily the highest in the league in that category), and he torched defenders of that caliber to the tune of 12.1 YPA and six touchdowns. Four of Bryant's 2013 projected cornerback matchups are slated to be against green-rated cornerbacks, so the Cowboys should do everything in their power to see that he racks up double-digit targets on a multitude of downfield passes in those contests.
Cut Romo loose more on long passes
With a receiving corps like the one the Cowboys possess, one would think Romo would rate at or near the top of the league in terms of downfield pass percentage, but his 10.4 percent stretch vertical target rate (which measures the frequency of throws 20 or more yards downfield) ranked 24th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 175 total pass attempts to qualify). To put that number into perspective, Romo threw a lower percentage of stretch vertical passes than Sam Bradford, Matt Cassel or Brady Quinn. His overall target level also wasn't as high as would be expected, as his 69 stretch vertical targets ranked 10th.
If the idea is to keep Romo from throwing deep because he makes mistakes at that level, it is a misguided thought, because Romo posted a 4.2 percent bad decision rate (BDR) on aerials of that nature. The leaguewide stretch vertical BDR was 4.9 percent, so Romo was actually a better than average decision-maker on those throws. With the kind of upside that more long passes to Bryant, Miles Austin and rookie Terrance Williams (who had great downfield metrics last year) has, it would probably be worth the extra risk even if Romo's stretch vertical BDR moved up by a couple of points.
Stop throwing as many passes to Jason Witten
Witten was the primary beneficiary of Romo's increased attempt volume, as his 141 targets easily topped the tight-end ranks and was so high that only seven wide receivers saw more pass attempts last season.
The issue with this is Witten is no longer a threat on downfield throws. He fared well in the area of vertical targets (36, sixth highest among tight ends) but was 22nd in vertical YPA (10.4) and tied for 13th in vertical touchdowns (two). This is why Greg Olsen, Dennis Pitta and Owen Daniels, a trio of tight ends who were each at least 46 total targets behind Witten, were within a point per game of Witten in terms of fantasy production.
Use Miles Austin more in the slot
This is important because 60 of Witten's passes occurred while he was flexed out as a slot receiver. He gained 445 yards on those throws, which equates to 7.4 YPA. By contrast, Austin saw 51 passes thrown to him when he lined up as a slot receiver and gained 465 yards on his passes, or 9.1 YPA. That's a 23 percent productivity increase over what Witten did and is a trade-off Dallas should make as often as possible.
Throw more screen passes
The increase in overall passes occurred despite Dallas ranking dead last in the league in screen pass attempts (21) and screen pass yardage (132). It's not as if the Cowboys had significant production issues on these plays, as their 6.3 screen pass YPA tied for 17th in the league.
Jason Garrett probably stayed away from those throws in part because the Cowboys had a slew of injuries to their offensive line, so this might just be a matter of taking advantage of better O-line health.
A lot of fantasy owners will avoid picking Romo because of the perception that he just can't get the most out of his potential, but that shouldn't be the case this season. Most of these elements are easy to implement and will likely be a significant part of the game plan change that will occur under new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan. They should serve to vault Romo into top-five fantasy quarterback territory in 2013, and that makes him one of the most undervalued passers in fantasy football this season.
Here's why Cowboys QB could wind up among top five at position in fantasy
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Prior to the 2012 season, there was a strong case to be made that Tony Romo was a top-five-caliber quarterback. That ranking was for his status among NFL starters from an on-field perspective, but it also could have been applied to his fantasy football potential.
Romo did come close to hitting the top five of fantasy quarterbacks last season in one sense, as his 271 points ranked eighth at that position. But, in truth, he was actually well short of the goal since the No. 5 player (Peyton Manning) scored 33 more fantasy points than Romo.
If he wasn't able to reach a top-five fantasy quarterback ranking in a campaign during which he got a phenomenal late-season performance from Dez Bryant and dramatically increased his pass-attempt volume (522 in 2011 to 648 in 2012), is there any chance Romo can be a top-five fantasy passer in 2013?
<OFFER></OFFER>
The surprising answer to that question is yes, at least as long as the Cowboys do five things to better maximize their fantasy football potential.
Those things are:
Continue to send Dez Bryant after favorable matchups
Bryant was highly productive across the yards-per-attempt spectrum but, as will be noted in my draft guide, some of his most explosive gains occurred when facing a green-rated cornerback (those whose coverage metrics placed them in the bottom third of the league).
Aerials in that category accounted for 43.1 percent of Bryant's total targets (easily the highest in the league in that category), and he torched defenders of that caliber to the tune of 12.1 YPA and six touchdowns. Four of Bryant's 2013 projected cornerback matchups are slated to be against green-rated cornerbacks, so the Cowboys should do everything in their power to see that he racks up double-digit targets on a multitude of downfield passes in those contests.
Cut Romo loose more on long passes
With a receiving corps like the one the Cowboys possess, one would think Romo would rate at or near the top of the league in terms of downfield pass percentage, but his 10.4 percent stretch vertical target rate (which measures the frequency of throws 20 or more yards downfield) ranked 24th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 175 total pass attempts to qualify). To put that number into perspective, Romo threw a lower percentage of stretch vertical passes than Sam Bradford, Matt Cassel or Brady Quinn. His overall target level also wasn't as high as would be expected, as his 69 stretch vertical targets ranked 10th.
If the idea is to keep Romo from throwing deep because he makes mistakes at that level, it is a misguided thought, because Romo posted a 4.2 percent bad decision rate (BDR) on aerials of that nature. The leaguewide stretch vertical BDR was 4.9 percent, so Romo was actually a better than average decision-maker on those throws. With the kind of upside that more long passes to Bryant, Miles Austin and rookie Terrance Williams (who had great downfield metrics last year) has, it would probably be worth the extra risk even if Romo's stretch vertical BDR moved up by a couple of points.
Stop throwing as many passes to Jason Witten
Witten was the primary beneficiary of Romo's increased attempt volume, as his 141 targets easily topped the tight-end ranks and was so high that only seven wide receivers saw more pass attempts last season.
The issue with this is Witten is no longer a threat on downfield throws. He fared well in the area of vertical targets (36, sixth highest among tight ends) but was 22nd in vertical YPA (10.4) and tied for 13th in vertical touchdowns (two). This is why Greg Olsen, Dennis Pitta and Owen Daniels, a trio of tight ends who were each at least 46 total targets behind Witten, were within a point per game of Witten in terms of fantasy production.
Use Miles Austin more in the slot
This is important because 60 of Witten's passes occurred while he was flexed out as a slot receiver. He gained 445 yards on those throws, which equates to 7.4 YPA. By contrast, Austin saw 51 passes thrown to him when he lined up as a slot receiver and gained 465 yards on his passes, or 9.1 YPA. That's a 23 percent productivity increase over what Witten did and is a trade-off Dallas should make as often as possible.
Throw more screen passes
The increase in overall passes occurred despite Dallas ranking dead last in the league in screen pass attempts (21) and screen pass yardage (132). It's not as if the Cowboys had significant production issues on these plays, as their 6.3 screen pass YPA tied for 17th in the league.
Jason Garrett probably stayed away from those throws in part because the Cowboys had a slew of injuries to their offensive line, so this might just be a matter of taking advantage of better O-line health.
A lot of fantasy owners will avoid picking Romo because of the perception that he just can't get the most out of his potential, but that shouldn't be the case this season. Most of these elements are easy to implement and will likely be a significant part of the game plan change that will occur under new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan. They should serve to vault Romo into top-five fantasy quarterback territory in 2013, and that makes him one of the most undervalued passers in fantasy football this season.
